OG Fans - April 2, 2025

The countdown for Carolina’s most anticipated prospect in recent memory ticks closer every day, as defenseman Alexander Nikishin’s SKA St. Petersburg battle in the first round of the KHL playoffs, currently down two games to one in a best of seven series to Dynamo Moscow. Dynamo features former Hurricanes Max Comtois and Cedric Paquette, as well as former NHLers Nikita Gusev, Jordan Weal, and Dylan Sikura, so they’ve got that going for them, which is nice. SKA is the 7 seed, coming off one of their worst seasons since the KHL was formed back in 2008, while Dynamo sits as the 2 seed, though the two teams were only separated by 7 points in the standings in a very tight Western Conference race.

When SKA’s season ends, whether it be in this playoff round or further down the line, Nikishin should be free to sign with the Hurricanes soon after. While KHL contracts run until May 31st officially each year, an agreement has reportedly been reached between Nikishin and SKA to release him from his KHL contract once SKA no longer has games to play, allowing him to sign with the Hurricanes, who hold his exclusive NHL rights after drafting him 69th overall (nice) during the 2020 NHL draft. Nikishin seems eager to showcase his talents in the NHL, and I’m sure the Canes would like to play with their shiny new toy they’ve been waiting several Christmases for, but let’s pump the brakes a little bit on expectations, especially this season.

First, let’s just take a step back and look at how we got here. Nikishin, going into the 2020 draft, was difficult to predict. On one side, playing in the KHL as an 18-year-old is impressive, but Nikishin only played 29 games at the top level with limited minutes in a depth role, recording only three points, and he only played eight games at other levels, so the Canes didn’t have much to look at. When Nikishin did play, he wasn’t blowing anyone out of the water, with Elite Prospects not even listing him in their top 129 draft eligible players. Yet, whether it was due to Nikishin’s strong play the season before at the Russian junior level at age 17, his size, or a crystal ball the Canes scouting team doesn’t want to use too often to tip off the league, the Canes drafted him at the top of the third round and have watched him blossom ever since.

Nikishin’s NHL debut might take a little bit, though, even once he’s been signed. While we can be as critical of Dmitri Orlov or Shayne Gostisbehere all we want, the truth is that they are players with a strong amount of proven NHL experience, whereas Nikishin is not. The KHL is a very good league, but it’s not the NHL. Nikishin is very unlikely to replicate his KHL numbers right off the jump, and the thought of him booting Orlov or Gostisbehere out of the lineup with Rod Brind’Amour running the bench seems a bit far-fetched.

Right, Brind’Amour. Rod Brind’Amour, love or hate it, is a big “my guys” proponent, and while Nikishin seems like he could easily fit into that type of role with Brind’Amour due to his work ethic, Rod doesn’t know the guy yet, and for him to get to know him, he 1) has to be here and 2) have an opportunity to get into the lineup. Getting here depends on how bad SKA plays; if SKA loses tonight and Friday, Nikishin could be with the team in Buffalo on Tuesday. If SKA turns it around and defeats Dynamo in this series, seeing Nikishin in the NHL regular season would be highly unlikely, and – barring injury – it would be even more unlikely to see Nikishin making his NHL debut in the playoffs. So, as exciting as it might be, Nikishin might not play a game for the Carolina Hurricanes this season.

So, if he’s not going to play, why would the Hurricanes want to sign Nikishin this season and burn a year off his entry level contract and put him one season closer to free agency?

Short answer: they don’t. Nikishin is 23, so by the rules of the collective bargaining agreement, Nikishin is subject to a compensation-capped entry level contract for two years. That’s great for the Hurricanes and their cap, but not so great for Nikishin, who I’m sure would like to make more than am 18-year-old rookie coming out of junior hockey. The team could offer him a contract that starts next season, but acting in good faith to Nikishin (and to potentially get on his good side), they will likely offer him a contract that begins this season, allowing the Canes “in case of emergency break glass” protection in case one of their left side defensemen gets injured, but also gets Nikishin one year closer to a bigger payday.

Is this all beneficial to Nikishin, though? Not necessarily. While a quicker contract allows Nikishin to reach (restricted) free agency in 2026, it also opens the window to an extension almost immediately. The Canes could offer a multi-year extension to Nikishin on July 1st of this year, which would probably be somewhat of a surprise for a player that might not have even played a single NHL game at that time, but the Canes might elect to roll the dice on Nikishin before his talent can shine on NHL ice. If they can convince him to extend before he plays NHL games, they may be able to sign him at a much lower price than he would after playing a full season in the NHL and potentially breaking out as a future star.

Alexander Nikishin looks to be an impactful player for the Hurricanes for the foreseeable future, but we just might need to be a little more patient before the Russian defenseman is dishing out hits at Lenovo Center.