OG Fans - August 28, 2024
Seth Jarvis doesn't have a contract yet and GM Eric Tulsky adds to the front office.
I get it. It’s August 28th and Canes forward Seth Jarvis still isn’t signed. He knows he’s getting paid though, and isn’t shy about it. Both sides seem to want to get something done long-term, which would be eight more years at a number more than $7 million per and possibly breaking that $8 million mark (I talked about Jarvis’ potential contract a few weeks ago if you’re interested in a lot of numbers). So, what’s causing a wrench in the works?
Jarvis isn’t the only high profile restricted free agent without a contract. Detroit’s Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman, Dallas’ Thomas Harley, New Jersey’s Dawson Mercer, and Winnipeg’s Cole Perfetti are among the restricted free agents without contracts. Raymond and Jarvis will likely see similar contracts, as both players are around the same age, play the same position, and both became 30-goal scorers for the first time last season. Raymond outscored Jarvis last season (72 points to 67), but Jarvis’ two-way game was stronger than Raymond’s. Both players’ representation is probably watching the other to see who makes the first move, and to be able to negotiate off of that, or even get just a little bit more. Once one signs, I’d expect the other to sign soon after. But for now, it’s a high-stakes game of chicken.
So, when can you officially start freaking out? Though Canes training camp dates haven’t been announced yet, going off of last year’s dates and this season’s preseason schedule, the Canes opened camp the Thursday before their first preseason game, which was five days later. The Canes open their preseason September 24th against Tampa, so assume camp opens around Thursday, September 19th. That’s more than three weeks away – if he’s not signed by then, commence hitting the beautifully shiny, jolly candy-like panic button.
Speaking of Jarvis…
While the offer sheet drama of the St. Louis Blues/Edmonton Oilers doesn’t directly affect the Carolina Hurricanes, it’s a little slow on Canes news this week (OK, there’s *none*), so it gives us an opportunity to see why losing Jarvis or Martin Necas to an offer sheet wasn’t really a serious concern for GM Eric Tulsky this offseason.
The Blues signed forward Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg both to two year offer sheets, with Holloway receiving a $2,290,457 yearly cap hit and Broberg getting a whopping $4,580,917 per year. The numbers selected were very specific – Holloway’s number was the most that could be given to command a third round pick for compensation if Edmonton didn’t match, while Broberg’s number was the most he could have been offered to command a second round pick.
Not only were the salaries offered specific for compensation, it was also important that they were – for lack of better term – a bad value. Offer sheeting (it’s a verb, don’t look it up) a player with a reasonable contract doesn’t do anything except save that player’s current team a lot of time. Sebastian Aho’s offer sheet was a no-brainer for the Canes to match. Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s wasn’t worth it to Montreal. In the case of Holloway and Broberg, both players were expected to receive contracts worth maybe a million dollars per year. Overpaying by double (or quadruple) caused pause in the Edmonton organization; do you really want to pay $4.5 million a year for a player with only 13 points in 81 career regular season games?
In order to get Necas or Jarvis signed to an offer sheet, you need to give them an amount much higher than the Canes had budgeted. With Necas eventually settling on $6.5 million per year from the Canes and Jarvis expected to be more than that, a team would have to add a decent bump to that to get the Canes to hesitate on immediately matching. Since doing that would also cost the offering team multiple draft picks (including at least two first round picks), it was highly unlikely that Necas or Jarvis would have seen an offer sheet. Probably the at biggest risk to lose to an offer sheet this offseason was center Jack Drury, who ended up re-signing with the Canes for $1.75 million per year.
Meanwhile…
The Canes announced recently that the team was bringing on Tyler Dellow as Assistant General Manager, with Darren Yorke receiving a promotion to Associate General Manager as well as General Manager of the Chicago Wolves, the Hurricanes AHL minor league affiliate. The Yorke promotion was expected – Yorke was probably the only other person seriously considered by Tom Dundon for the General Manager role outside of Eric Tulsky, and to position him as the distinct second-in-command behind Tulsky just makes sense.
Dellow comes to the Canes from the New Jersey Devils, where he spent the last five seasons, most recently as Senior Vice President of Hockey Strategy and Analytics. Dellow’s entry into the hockey industry is similar to Tulsky’s, blogging about hockey analytics before being brought on by a professional organization as a consultant, with Dellow joining the Edmonton Oilers ten years ago, around the same time Tulsky was brought on as a part-time analyst by the Canes. Tulsky’s blogging didn’t expose then-NHL VP of Hockey Operations Colin Campbell’s corruption back in 2010 like Dellow’s did, but that’s a story for a different day.
Dellow’s hiring reinforces the Hurricanes focus on putting together one of the smartest, analytically-based front offices in the league, while not being afraid to eschew the traditional “200 hockey men” most hockey front offices rotate through.
